✅1/3/2025: Grizzlies @ Kings | Kings ML (-134) | 4.69u to win 3.5u

The Kings have been going through some turmoil lately, but this is a good spot to back them vs a dangerous Grizzlies team. Sacramento has been one of the unluckiest teams in the league, as despite ranking top 10 in both adjOFF SQ and adjDEF SQ, they are languishing near the bottom of the Western Conference with a 15-19 record. A big part of is the fact they are 2-12 in games decided by 5 points or less. Their record luck has them as the 5th unluckiest team in the league, and they are overdue for some positive regression. By contrast, the Grizzlies rank 12th in adjOFF SQ and 24th in adjDEF SQ but sit pretty with a 23-11 record. Memphis has also been dealing with a plethora of injuries, as they will be without Morant and Aldama yet again. They’ve stayed hot with all of the different lineups they’ve trotted out but at some point, regression has to kick in and we see results more aligned with what the metrics are saying. SQ has them as the 6th luckiest team in the league. Since 2020, home favorites with losing records are 67% SU when facing a team with a winning record. Factoring this in, my model makes the Kings -180 tonight.