❌12/30/2024: Predators @ Jets | predators ml (+110) | 4u to win 4.4u

This is a disgusting "hold your nose" bet but I show massive value on the Predators here. Nashville has suffered from unbelievable bad luck this season. They rank #16th in the league with a 49.9% xGoals %, and yet they have a league worst 39.52% Goals %. By contrast, the Jets rank #4 in goal % with 57.14% but only #17th (behind the Predators!) in xGoals% with 49.68%. These two teams are fairly even based on the metrics and yet Winnipeg is an elite team with one of the best records while the Predators are languishing at the bottom of the central division. In fact, Nashville also owns a better Corsi% (12th best) compared to Winnipeg’s (24th best). Hellebuyck is obviously a major reason for Winnipeg’s success, as he leads all goalies with a ridiculous 25 Goals Saved Above expected. In other words, opponents were expected to score 85 goals based on the chances generated but have only managed 60. It’s unfathomable that a team with an xGoal differential of -0.97 has such a good record but an elite goalie like Hellebuyck has the ability to carry a team as we’ve seen. That can only last so long, however. It’s not going to be any easier tonight for the Predators, but the signs are there for some positive regression on their end while Winnipeg has some overdue negative regression coming their way. I price this as -110 for both, so good value here at + odds. BOL