✅3/11/2025: Sam Houston State @ UTEP | UTEP ML (-126) | 3.78u to win 3u

Very interesting spot here with UTEP. They have lost 7 in a row but teams that are favorites after losing 7 in a row are 189-105 SU (64%) historically. That improves to 13-2 SU when on a neutral court in March, and 8-2 SU when the spread is less than 3. UTEP also matches up well with Sam Houston based on the regular season games. They won handily at home and lost by 2 on the road despite Sam Houston shooting 50% from 3

✅3/10/2025: Magic @ Rockets | Total under 212 (-110) | 2.2u to win 2u

This is a good spot to back the under here despite the low total. Magic are a great team in general for the under, as they play at the slowest pace in the league while possessing the 3rd worst offense by offensive efficiency. They have an elite defense and face another elite defense in the Rockets. In fact, these are the #2 and #3 defenses in the league. The game profiles well for an under. Some trends: Magic are 39-26 to the Under this season, averaging 210 points in those games. Magic are coming off of a win in the previous game. They are 20-9 to the Under after a win this season, averaging 207 points in those games. Magic are 20-11 to the Under this season when the total closes below 213, averaging 206 points. 10-4 when on the Road, with those games averaging 205 points. Rockets won their last game by 29. Since 2020, they’re 10-0 to the Under after winning the previous games by more than 28 points. Those games averaged 204 points. The two games this season averaged 202 points.

✅3/3/2025: Trail Blazers @ 76ers | 76ers ML (-105) | 3.15u to win 3u

We're going to fade the Blazers in what is a brutal situational spot for them. This will be their 5th road game in a row and a b2b after a heartbreaking loss to the Cavs in OT, a game in which they led most of the way. No Pg3 and Oubre which obviously makes things dicey but I'm gonna hold my nose and trust the spot here. Teams playing their 5th game in a row that are on a b2b and are an away dog are 125-309 all time. Teams playing their 5th game in a row that are on a b2b and are an away dog are 16-68 SU since 2023. The Blazers might close as small favorites due to Oubre and PG3 being out and the trends become more of a toss now. But I still think the 76ers can take advantage of a Blazers team that is in a tough situational spot on a b2b and might be looking ahead to marquee matchups against the Celtics and Thunder.

❌2/11/2025: UAB @ ECU | UAB ML (-134) | 2.68u to win 2u

UAB had a rocky start to the season but has gotten back on track in conference play. They had a bad loss on the road vs top dog Memphis but split vs the 2nd best team in North Texas (should have 2-0’d really, blew a 20 pt lead in the 1st game) and have rolled through the inferior teams in the conference. I do have concerns about the Blazers defense, which is rather lowly, but I don’t think ECU has the weapons to keep up with the UAB firepower on the offensive side of the ball. UAB ranks #47 in adjusted offensive efficiency and should be able to hang a big number vs a below avg ECU defense. I have this power rated closer to UAB -5 and fair ML price as -175 so we’re getting good value with the ML at -134. BOL

✅1/7/2025: Tennessee @ Florida | Florida -2.5 (-112) | 5.6u to win 5u

The #1 Vols bring their undefeated record to Gainesville tonight, as they look to make it 15-0. I think the spot sets up perfectly for Florida, though, as the Gators look to bounce back from their first loss of the season. They dropped a close one @ Kentucky over the weekend, losing 100-106 in a game which featured NBA-level shot making, pace, and offensive efficiency. Returning home with a chance to knock off the #1 team in the country is just what the doctor ordered. This will be the toughest matchup for both teams, to date. Florida’s elite offense, ranked 3rd in adjO efficiency, will be put to the test by a Vols D that ranks 2nd in adjD efficiency. Tennessee already shut down two potent offenses in Baylor and Illinois, holding both teams to less than 65 points. However, the Gators are a touch better than both teams, particularly on the offensive end. The key will be to turn this into a fast-paced game, and that’s something Florida is always looking to do. They thrive on transition opportunities and fast break points. You don’t want to let the Vols get comfortable and impose their tempo and stifling D on the game. Overall, this is as good of a home situational spot as they come. #1 ranked teams that are road dogs of over 2 points are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

✅1/3/2025: Grizzlies @ Kings | Kings ML (-134) | 4.69u to win 3.5u

The Kings have been going through some turmoil lately, but this is a good spot to back them vs a dangerous Grizzlies team. Sacramento has been one of the unluckiest teams in the league, as despite ranking top 10 in both adjOFF SQ and adjDEF SQ, they are languishing near the bottom of the Western Conference with a 15-19 record. A big part of is the fact they are 2-12 in games decided by 5 points or less. Their record luck has them as the 5th unluckiest team in the league, and they are overdue for some positive regression. By contrast, the Grizzlies rank 12th in adjOFF SQ and 24th in adjDEF SQ but sit pretty with a 23-11 record. Memphis has also been dealing with a plethora of injuries, as they will be without Morant and Aldama yet again. They’ve stayed hot with all of the different lineups they’ve trotted out but at some point, regression has to kick in and we see results more aligned with what the metrics are saying. SQ has them as the 6th luckiest team in the league. Since 2020, home favorites with losing records are 67% SU when facing a team with a winning record. Factoring this in, my model makes the Kings -180 tonight.

❌12/30/2024: Predators @ Jets | predators ml (+110) | 4u to win 4.4u

This is a disgusting "hold your nose" bet but I show massive value on the Predators here. Nashville has suffered from unbelievable bad luck this season. They rank #16th in the league with a 49.9% xGoals %, and yet they have a league worst 39.52% Goals %. By contrast, the Jets rank #4 in goal % with 57.14% but only #17th (behind the Predators!) in xGoals% with 49.68%. These two teams are fairly even based on the metrics and yet Winnipeg is an elite team with one of the best records while the Predators are languishing at the bottom of the central division. In fact, Nashville also owns a better Corsi% (12th best) compared to Winnipeg’s (24th best). Hellebuyck is obviously a major reason for Winnipeg’s success, as he leads all goalies with a ridiculous 25 Goals Saved Above expected. In other words, opponents were expected to score 85 goals based on the chances generated but have only managed 60. It’s unfathomable that a team with an xGoal differential of -0.97 has such a good record but an elite goalie like Hellebuyck has the ability to carry a team as we’ve seen. That can only last so long, however. It’s not going to be any easier tonight for the Predators, but the signs are there for some positive regression on their end while Winnipeg has some overdue negative regression coming their way. I price this as -110 for both, so good value here at + odds. BOL